Kansas and Kentucky may not be the best college basketball teams by the end of the 2018-19 season. But as it stands, it鈥檚 hard to justify slotting any other school above them.
So today, we鈥檙e breaking down the Wildcats and Jayhawks themselves. Who deserves to be the No. 1 team when the first polls come out?
Let鈥檚 dive in.
Kansas Jayhawks
Projected rotation: Udoka Azubuike, Dedric Lawson, K.J. Lawson, Lagerald Vick, Charlie Moore, Quentin Grimes, Devon Dotson, Mitch Lightfoot, Marcus Garrett
The case for them:
Experience meets talent. It usually takes both to win at the highest level.
If Kansas starts Azubuike, the Lawsons, Vick and Moore, it won鈥檛 have any freshmen in the starting five. And even if Grimes gets the nod over K.J. Lawson, the Jayhawks will be fine.
MORE: Bold predictions for the upcoming season
Dedric Lawson is probably the best player on the Jayhawks, but there are six or seven guys that could reasonably lead them in scoring on a given night. The Memphis transfer averaged 19.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.1 blocks per game in his final season with the Tigers. Lawson probably won鈥檛 top those numbers at Kansas, but he鈥檚 a stat sheet stuffer capable of carrying a team if necessary.
But most nights, he won鈥檛 have to. Azubuike was a mismatch for Big 12 centers last year, shooting a whopping 77 percent from the floor. He could crack 80 with another offseason of development. Vick (37 percent from 3) is the type of 3-and-D wing every title contender needs.
The Jayhawks will be able to play big or small, slow or fast. An intriguing lineup: slotting Lawson at center and surrounding him with Vick, his brother K.J., Grimes and Moore. Good luck stopping that five-out attack.
When the Jayhawks use Azubuike and Lawson together, they鈥檒l torch foes on the boards. And Kansas has a coaching edge over just about everyone as long as it employs Bill Self.
This team has it all, including depth. It鈥檚 the best roster Self has had in a while, which is saying something.
The case against them:
It鈥檚 nitpicky, but Kansas鈥 point guard play has the potential to be spotty. Moore shot less than 40 percent from the field in his lone season at Cal and will be relied upon to run the offense. He needs to prove he can distribute more frequently and become more efficient.
But even if Moore falters, which is unlikely, the Jayhawks have a stud incoming freshman in Dotson. At least one of those two should work out. Point guard is the most unproven position on the roster going into the year, but Kansas has talent there.This team doesn鈥檛 have a glaring weakness, but for this sake of this argument, Kansas鈥 ceiling isn鈥檛 as high as Kentucky鈥檚. Besides Grimes, there may not be a first round pick on the roster (that said, there are plenty of NBA-caliber guys). The Wildcats have more potential star power, typical of a Calipari roster.
Kansas has a smaller range of outcomes. Whether that鈥檚 a positive or a negative depends on your perspective, but it鈥檚 hard to imagine this team falling below the 2-line come Selection Sunday.
MORE: College basketball home
Kentucky Wildcats
Projected rotation: P.J. Washington, Quade Green, Reid Travis, Ashton Hagans, Keldon Johnson, Nick Richards, E.J. Montgomery, Tyler Herro, Immanuel Quickley
The case for them:
While Kentucky isn鈥檛 experienced relative to normal teams, Kentucky is experienced by its own standard. That鈥檚 huge considering the Wildcats鈥 dynamic talent.
Travis transferred in from Stanford, where he averaged 19.5 points and 8.7 rebounds in his final season. He鈥檒l likely start alongside Washington, returning for his sophomore year. Throw Green in, and the Wildcats will likely start three non-freshmen. Calipari regularly started five rookies last year.
Travis and Washington are both face-up forwards who are plus ball-handlers for their size. While there鈥檚 some potential overlap in their games, they should work well together thanks to their combined playmaking. Kentucky has way more shooting this year and should improve from behind the 3-point arc immensely. Remember, last season the Wildcats won a tournament game without making a 3. Only seven Division I teams jacked fewer 3s than them last year. A reminder: 3s are good!
This team is just as talented as last year, but has more experience and puzzle pieces that make more sense. It鈥檚 going to be a fun year in Lexington.
MORE: 7 players set to replace stars
The case against them:
While Kentucky has more star power than Kansas, it still doesn鈥檛 have a De鈥橝aron Fox, John Wall, Anthony Davis or Demarcus Cousins type. Hagans and Montgomery probably have the most pro potential, but they鈥檙e not surefire stars.
That said, someone is probably going to pop like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did last year. We just don鈥檛 know who yet. And as we mentioned before, Kentucky is old by its standard, but it鈥檚 still young in general. Travis is the only upperclassman likely to play a key role.
Another negative that may be a positive, again, depending on how you look at it: role allocation. Kentucky goes 10 or 11 deep. How are the 10th and 11th guys going to respond if they don鈥檛 get enough minutes? How long will it take Calipari to find the right rotation and stick with it? Kansas鈥 rotation feels more defined, even if the Jayhawks aren鈥檛 as deep.
It鈥檚 nice to be deep 鈥 to an extent. But you don鈥檛 need 10 or 11 capable guys to win a title. You need six or seven, and having more can complicate things.
First world problems, of course. So Kentucky has too many good players? Sure beats the alternative.
Verdict:
Kentucky by a hair. It feels like one of Hagans, Johnson or Montgomery will blossom. If that happens, the Wildcats鈥 ceiling is just a bit higher than the Jayhawks.
It should be a fun season. Don鈥檛 be shocked if these teams meet in the national championship game.