Undefeated records are great, but there’s not a team that would take a long undefeated start to a season over a national championship. We wanted to see if an unblemished start predicted if a team won the Ƶ Division I men's basketball championship. The answer: not really.
We chose New Year's Day as a logical starting point to measure a team's national championship chances if they are undefeated on that day. This year, there were four undefeated teams in Division I men’s basketball Jan. 1. Nevada’s loss this past Saturday left Michigan, Virginia and Houston as the teams still without a loss.
Here are three key points we found from scouring the last 10 years of data:
- Since the 2009 Ƶ tournament, just two teams have won the national championship after making it to New Year’s Day undefeated: North Carolina in 2009 and Duke in 2015.
- Out of all 42 teams that made it to Jan. 1 undefeated since 2009, the same amount of teams missed — or were ineligible for — the Ƶ tournament as the number of teams that made the national championship game. In addition to North Carolina and Duke, Gonzaga made the title game in 2017 and Michigan in 2013.
- It’s rare for a team which makes it to Jan. 1 without a loss to miss the Ƶ tournament. It’s likely that team wins a game or two, but winning the national championship is even more rare.
UNDEFEATED NO MORE!
— Ƶ March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB)
New Mexico DOMINATES No. 6 Nevada!
MORE: Toughest tests left for 3 undefeated teams | Katz's Power 36
This is how far the teams that were undefeated on Jan. 1 have gone in their Ƶ tournaments since 2009 by round:
- Missed/ineligible for Ƶ tournament - 4
- Lost in first/second round - 5
- Lost in second/third round - 10
- Lost in Sweet Sixteen - 8
- Lost in Elite Eight - 7
- Lost in Final Four - 4
- Lost in Ƶ championship - 2
- Won Ƶ championship - 2
A note: We looked at teams that made it to at least Jan. 1 without a loss. Teams that lost on New Year’s Day are still included.
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Here are a few other points of interest that stuck out in this analysis of undefeated teams and how they did in March Madness.
- 2017-18 was the only year in the past 10 seasons where no team made it to Jan. 1 undefeated. The high was seven undefeated teams on New Year’s Day in 2011 and 2014.
- Seven teams have made it past Jan. 31 undefeated. Only two have entered the Ƶ tournament unbeaten in the past 10 seasons.
- Of the 42 teams that made it to Jan. 1 undefeated since 2009, 16 earned No. 1 seeds in the Ƶ tournament that season. The lowest seed in the past 10 seasons was Texas as a No. 8 in 2010.
- If Michigan, Virginia, Houston or Nevada want to make the Final Four, history shows they will have to earn a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. Michigan as a No. 4 seed in 2013 had the lowest seed of the teams that made it to Jan. 1 undefeated to make the Final Four. The other seven teams were either a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
- Going later in the season without a loss doesn’t exactly mean more Ƶ tournament success. Kentucky in 2015 and Gonzaga in 2017 are the only two Final Four teams on this list since 2009 to have its first loss after Jan. 14.
Unranked ➡️ Ranked:
— Ƶ March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB)
20. Iowa State
24. St. John's
25. TCU
Full AP Poll analysis:
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All things considered, Michigan, Virginia and Nevada should contend for top seeds in the Ƶ tournament this season. And there’s no reason to think Houston can’t be a top-three seed either. Time will tell if one of those four teams can make it five straight seasons that a team undefeated on Jan. 1 makes the Ƶ tournament Final Four.
Here are all the teams since 2009 that were undefeated as of Jan. 1 and where they finished:
| Year | School | First loss | Finish | Final Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | North Carolina | Jan. 4 | Ƶ champion | 34-4 |
| Pittsburgh | Jan. 17 | Elite Eight | 31-5 | |
| Clemson | Jan. 17 | First round | 23-9 | |
| Wake Forest | Jan. 21 | First round | 24-7 | |
| 2010 | West Virginia | Jan. 1 | Final Four | 31-7 |
| Syracuse | Jan. 2 | Sweet Sixteen | 30-5 | |
| Purdue | Jan. 9 | Sweet Sixteen | 29-6 | |
| Kansas | Jan. 10 | Second round | 33-3 | |
| Texas | Jan. 18 | First round | 24-10 | |
| Kentucky | Jan. 26 | Elite Eight | 35-3 | |
| 2011 | UCF | Jan. 8 | Missed tournament | 21-12 (All wins vacated) |
| Cincinnati | Jan. 9 | Third round | 26-9 | |
| Duke | Jan. 12 | Sweet Sixteen | 32-5 | |
| Syracuse | Jan. 17 | Third round | 20-8 (seven wins vacated) | |
| Kansas | Jan. 22 | Elite Eight | 35-3 | |
| San Diego State | Jan. 26 | Sweet Sixteen | 34-3 | |
| Ohio State | Feb. 12 | Sweet Sixteen | 34-3 | |
| 2012 | Missouri | Jan. 7 | Second round | 30-5 |
| Baylor | Jan. 16 | Elite Eight | 30-8 | |
| Syracuse | Jan. 21 | Elite Eight | 34-3 (All wins vacated) | |
| Murray State | Feb. 9 | Third round | 31-2 | |
| 2013 | Arizona | Jan. 10 | Sweet Sixteen | 27-8 |
| Duke | Jan. 12 | Elite Eight | 30-6 | |
| Michigan | Jan. 13 | Ƶ runner-up | 31-8 | |
| 2014 | Oregon | Jan. 5 | Third round | 24-10 |
| Ohio State | Jan. 7 | Second round | 25-10 | |
| Iowa State | Jan. 11 | Sweet Sixteen | 28-8 | |
| Wisconsin | Jan. 14 | Final Four | 30-8 | |
| Arizona | Feb. 1 | Elite Eight | 33-5 | |
| Syracuse | Feb. 19 | Third round | 28-6 | |
| Wichita State | March 23 | Third round | 35-1 | |
| 2015 | Villanova | Jan. 3 | Third round | 33-3 |
| Colorado State | Jan. 3 | Missed tournament | 27-7 | |
| Duke | Jan. 11 | Ƶ champion | 35-4 | |
| Virginia | Jan. 31 | Third round | 30-4 | |
| Kentucky | April 4 | Final Four | 38-1 | |
| 2016 | Oklahoma | Jan. 4 | Final Four | 29-8 |
| South Carolina | Jan. 13 | Missed tournament | 25-9 | |
| SMU | Jan. 27 | Ineligible for postseason | 25-5 | |
| 2017 | Villanova | Jan. 4 | Second round | 32-4 |
| Baylor | Jan. 10 | Sweet Sixteen | 27-8 | |
| Gonzaga | Feb. 25 | Ƶ runner-up | 37-2 | |
| 2018 | None |
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